Tesla-SpaceX deal: Wall St says inevitable but Musk says it's not certain

Elon Musk is exploring the potential merger of Tesla and SpaceX, a deal many analysts deem inevitable due to strategic alignment in AI, autonomous systems, and large infrastructure projects. Despite Musk seeing merit in the combination, he acknowledges significant hurdles, including the need for agreement from two special committees he cannot join, and a high-bar shareholder vote from Tesla. The merger is anticipated by Wall Street by the end of next year, with the combined entity potentially easing SpaceX's capital spending strain on AI and space infrastructure, and avoiding redundancies. A key motivation for Musk could be to consolidate his control, as a merger is estimated to give him around 57-58% of voting rights, compared to his current 20% at Tesla. However, the Tesla shareholder vote, requiring a majority of all shares (including uncast ballots counting against the deal), presents a substantial challenge, compounded by potential governance and regulatory scrutiny reminiscent of Tesla's 2016 SolarCity acquisition.